David’s 2010 Oscar Picks: “Should Win” and “Will Win”

In honor of the “Super Bowl of Hollywood” coming up this Sunday, KEEPING IT REEL thought it might be nice if we lead your thoughts going into any office or party Oscar pools you may be involved in.  Even while out of town, David’s spirit stays with us as he is bestowing his Oscar pics upon all of you.  In choosing our Oscar winners, we thought it appropriate to make clear who we think will win, and who should win.  Enjoy!

Best Picture

Will Win: “Avatar”

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”

Yeah, that’s how it will end up.  I mean, come on…at this point, watching “Avatar” could probably heal the lame, right?  So sad… I really don’t feel there is any need to explain why Kathryn Bigelow’s taut war thriller succeeds on all levels.  I hope Cameron eats it come Oscar night but that’s highly doubtful.

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Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Jeff Bridges — “Crazy Heart”

Should Win: Jeremy Renner — “The Hurt Locker”

This is the one acting category where there could be a surprise. Freeman is out. Firth could be an upset.  Clooney already won.  Bridges is already winning awards for this role and while he does give a fine performance, I’d prefer the Academy holds off and give it to him for his next film, the Coen brother’s adaptation of “True Grit”.

That leaves Renner and wouldn’t it be cool to see a fairly unheard of actor who’s been around get recognized for an outstanding job?  I think his would be the most exciting acceptance speech.

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Actor in a Supporting Role

Should & Will Win: Christoph Waltz — “Inglourious Basterds”

This is a lock.  Both Supporting Actor categories are locks this year, which is fine since the golden guy will be going to some golden performances.  The rest of these actors were solid in their roles, some were stuck in less than stellar movies (Tucci) while others gave fair performances (Damon).  I predict Harrelson has an Oscar coming to him in the future at some point and Plummer should’ve won one a while ago.  That leaves Waltz as the lock.  An easy lock to a fantastic performance.

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Actress in a Leading Role

Will Win: Sandra Bullock — “The Blind Side”

Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe — “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Everyone is sweet on Bullock and since this is the only award her film will win….she’ll go home with an Oscar, but there is no other “wow” debut performance as that of Sidibe’s role as Precious.  Just amazing.

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Actress in a Supporting Role

Should & Will Win: Mo’Nique — “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Another lock.  When I watched this film, I was blown away by her and it was the first time in a long time where I really wanted to reach into the screen and open a can on a character in a film.  She was that vile.

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Animated Feature Film

Should & Will Win: “Up” — Pete Docter

It’s nice that it was nominated in the Best Picture category but we all know it will take the gold here.

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Art Direction

Should & Will Win: “Avatar” — Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, and Kim Sinclair

That’s a given.

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Cinematography

Will Win: “Avatar” — Mauro Fiore

Should Win: “Inglourious Basterds” — Robert Richardson

Yeah, I know what will win but I also know what should win.

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Costume Design

Will Win: “Nine” — Colleen Atwood

Should Win: “Coco Before Chanel” — Catherine Leterrier

I really could care less about this category.  Atwood usually wins when she is nominated so I’ll vote against her.

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Directing

Will Win: “Avatar” — James Cameron

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker” — Kathryn Bigelow

There is no logical reason for Cameron to win. None. Bigelow deserves it. She has delivered some amazing films in the past but this one is her best and it was amazing what she did here with what little she had.

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Documentary (Feature)

Will Win: “The Cove” — Louie Psihoyos

Should Win: “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” — Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith

Haven’t seen either of these but I’m guessing the most popular one will win.

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Documentary (Short Subject)

Should Win: “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” — Daniel Junge and Henry

Will Win: “Music by Prudence” — Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett

I have no clue. Just guessing here.

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Film Editing

Will Win: “Avatar” — Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker” — Bob Murawski and Chris Innis

It’s not easy to edit a film together in a way where evrything makes sense, characterizarion remains and continuity is intact.

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Foreign Language Film

Will Win: “The White Ribbon” — Germany

Should Win: “Un Prophète” — France

Germany’s entry already won a Golden Globe and it’s generating huge buzz but I’d like this seldom-seen French film to win instead.

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Makeup

Should Win: “Star Trek” — Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow

Will Win: “The Young Victoria” — Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

… because a green-skinned lady is cooler to look at than frou-frou dresses!

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Music (Original Score)

Will Win: “Avatar” — James Horner

Should Win: “Up” — Michael Giacchino

A good percentage of the success of “Up” was Giacchino, who has continuosly delivered incredible scores for both film and TV (Alias & Lost). He deserves here considered he’s one of the reasons the film’s first 10 or so minutes was so moving.

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Music (Original Song)

Will & Should Win: “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” — Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett

The music that weaved it’s way throughout this film brought the film’s heart to the forefront.

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Short Film (Animated)

Will & Should Win: “A Matter of Loaf and Death” — Nick Park

I’m really at a loss here, but Nick Park is awesome.

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Short Film (Live Action)

Will Win: “The Door” — Juanita Wilson and James Flynn

Should Win: “Miracle Fish” — Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey

Just a shot in the dark here.

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Sound Editing

Will Win: “Avatar” — Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker” — Paul N.J. Ottosson

Another “Avatar” sweep (just because) but I’m rootin’ for the ex-wife again.

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Sound Mixing

Will Win: “Avatar” — Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker” — Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett

Rinse and Repeat.

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Visual Effects

Will & Should Win: “Avatar” — Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones

This is the only area where the film actually excelled.

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Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Will & Should Win: “Up in the Air” — Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

This is likely the only award this film will get and it really was the best aspect of the film. Sure the actors were great and that’s because of the script they had to work with.

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Writing (Original Screenplay)

Will Win: “Inglourious Basterds” — Quentin Tarantino

Should Win: “A Serious Man” — Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

I’d be fine if either one of these one but the Coen brothers made me want to return to their film more times than I’d want to return to Tarantino’s and it was all due to their writing.

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There it is!  Do you agree with David?  Do you think he’s crazy?  Let us know!

Paul’s picks are coming soon!